Newsom, a progressive Democrat, has supported decarceration and rehabilitation-focused policies, notably defending Proposition 47 (2014), which reduced penalties for low-level theft and drug offenses. Critics argue this fostered a perception of leniency, spiking shoplifting and burglaries.
- Crime Surge and Reversals: Shoplifting rose 28% from 2019-2023, with San Francisco and LA seeing retail losses of $4B annually. High-profile store closures (e.g., Target in SF, 2021) were partly blamed on theft, though e-commerce also factored. By 2025, Newsom’s 2024 anti-crime package (10 bills, including felony charges for serial theft) cut shoplifting 15% and burglaries 18.8% YOY, suggesting a belated response to a crisis critics tie to earlier lax policies.
- Tax Base Impact: Retail and restaurant closures reduced sales tax revenue (~$25B statewide) by ~5% in 2022-2023. Upscale home burglaries in LA (e.g., Encino’s 2024-2025 spike) threatened property tax revenue ($10B in LA County), as values dipped 2-5% in affected areas.
Pritzker’s progressive agenda includes criminal justice reforms like the SAFE-T Act (2021), which eliminated cash bail and limited pretrial detention. Critics argue this, alongside defunding police rhetoric, emboldened crime in Chicago, particularly harming Black communities.
- Crime Trends: Chicago’s homicide rate peaked at 617 in 2023 but fell to ~450 projected in 2025 (339 YTD as of October 13). Black neighborhoods like Englewood bore 79% of deaths despite a 29% population share. Retail crime drove closures (e.g., Walmart’s 2023 South Side exit), costing ~$1.5B in city sales tax. The SAFE-T Act’s implementation correlated with a 2022-2023 crime spike (violent crime +10%), though 2025’s 33% homicide drop reflects Pritzker’s $250M investment in violence interruption and CPD reforms.
- Tax Base Impact: Crime’s $4.4B annual cost (2025 est.) strained Chicago’s budget, with property taxes ($2B citywide) lagging in high-crime areas. Business flight reduced income tax from retail workers ($500M lost 2020-2023). Critics link these to soft-on-crime policies.
Oregon: Kotek and Portland’s Unrest Policy Context: Kotek, a liberal Democrat, inherited Portland’s post-2020 unrest, tied to progressive tolerance of protests and reduced policing. Policies like decriminalizing low-level drug possession (Measure 110, 2020) and non-cooperation with federal law enforcement (e.g., ICE) fueled perceptions of lawlessness.
- Crime and Antifa: Portland’s 2020-2022 riots, often Antifa-linked, closed 100+ downtown businesses, costing $1B+ in taxes. 2025 ICE protests (26 federal charges by September) disrupted the South Waterfront, but homicides dropped 20% and property crime 15% YOY. Kotek’s $100M for policing and the mayor’s local law enforcement stabilized trends.
- Tax Base Impact: Downtown’s 25% vacancy rate (2022) eased to 12% by 2025, but protests cost $200M in disruptions. Sales/property taxes (~$1.7B citywide) are rebounding, yet critics argue earlier crackdowns could’ve prevented losses.
- Liberal Values Critique: Kotek’s resistance to federal intervention (e.g., suing Trump over National Guard, 2025) and initial support for Measure 110 align with progressive ideals but alienated businesses. Partial recriminalization in 2024 and policing funds show a pragmatic shift, but critics say the damage was avoidable.
Published by Editor, Sammy Campbell.